Jason Murphy

Nokia to Eat Apples

Dec 2, 2008 Geeks and Gadgets

Wow it has been nearly 10 years since I sold mobile phones for a living. Back then, GSM was 100x better than CDMA, but CDMA had the coverage. The Nokia 51xx and 61xx series phones ruled the marketplace by I swear 99%. Motorola was still trying to figure out its exclusive relationship with Nextel, but Nextel was cool because instead of rounding up to the next full minute, they billed in 6 second increments (kinda like a lawyer!). Ericsson was pre-Sony buyout and made high-quality phones that lacked cool faceplates. No one had color screens. Snake was the most fun you’d get out of a game. Texting wasn’t a verb, and most people had no idea you could use your phone for text messaging (or maybe the rates were just too high).

But, Nokia was THE shit back then.

They landed a couple of the coolest product placement spots with the 8110 series in the Matrix and the 9000 series (The Communicator!) in the Saint. Send, receive, and view Office files on your phone? No way!

And the Nokia phones people actually could afford had replaceable faceplates! Sweet! I still remember the business plan my professor shot down for producing faceplates with NFL logos on them (when all that was available were 5 solid colors to choose from). Too many licensing hoops made a high barrier to entry. I still think my prof. was lame and missing the point. If only I had gone underground and produced them in China. Someone else did. I’m sure they did ok.

But what happened since then? Nokia phones are still very cool, but somehow they may have jumped the shark. Sure the N-Gage (hardware) was a major flop, but just wait, it will be the New Coke of cell phones. And Motorola stole the market with the Razr. Blackberry became the next all-in-one must have phone for businesfolk. And then… there was Apple.

Oh yes, Apple. The originator of a single phone that swept an entire generation. The iPhone. This is the single best selling phone ever. And probably will be for some time.

Now I could rant and rave about why the iPhone is cool, and why I think Google’s Android platform will eventually be cooler. Or I could talk about how the BlackBerry Storm will pick-up the corporate consumers that Apple seems to have forgotten. But, I’d rather talk about (bet you can’t guess) Nokia is badass and will rule them all (disclaimer for future rebuttals: that statement may be slightly overstated).

Yes it is true that I think if any single company has an opportunity to beat Apple at its own game, it will be Nokia. Since Android is a coalition and really just software, I can’t declare that Google will beat Apple. That’s like saying Windows OS Mobile will beat the iPhone. I do predict more Android-enabled phones will be on the streets than iPhones in 5 years or less. But that is software. Hardware-to-hardware, I think Nokia will give Apple the largest run for their money in phone sales.

Nokia just announced its newest “smart” model today, the N97. IMO it is much cleaner, glossier, and nicer looking than the HTC G1 (the first Android phone on T-Mobile). I need a side-by-side comparison to the iPhone before I decide between those two (I admit, the iPhone is sexy). But looks aside, I think this phone is already a winner. The only way I see this phone NOT competing with Apple is if it doesn’t support 3G. The USTODAY article doesn’t give much info on the phone itself, but does state it will “probably” support AT&T’s high speed data network. I’m going to bet that means 3G.

What about the software? Well, Nokia has had years of refining its Symbian Open Source platform already. That’s right, Android isn’t the only open source game in town. There’s already networks of thousands of developers making applications for the OS, with many different distribution methods for those apps. And as far as an “App Store” is concerned, Nokia has that covered with their Software Market for common apps, and high end (high end for mobile at least) video game store at N-Gage. These aren’t just for the N97 thought, they are for almost-all Symbian operated phones (there are some apps that require features that some older phones don’t have yet, like full keyboards).

The only barrier betwen Nokia and Apple are the carriers. If Nokia can strike a sweet deal with multiple carriers (those relationships already exist), have a worldwide launch in a very small launch window (they are still the largest producer of phones in the world), heavily subsidize the cost of the phone with a signed contract (they’ve done it before), and white label the app store for the carriers… then I do see opportunity to start eating up Apple’s marketshare. However, all Apple has to do is break free from AT&T and start selling the iPhone on other networks and they’ll be back in the game.

So to all the iPhone faithful, the Android hopeful, and the BlackBerry addicts: I say watch out. The game hasn’t been won yet. The next 2-3 years are going to be VERY exciting. Thanks Nokia!

Tags: iphone, n97, nokia